The Delivery Strategy and Cost Refinement report done by Atkins Realis in February 2026⁽¹⁾ puts a range on the cost of the Western Bypass from between £170 million and up to £630 million. The lowest cost option is for a single carriageway road, delivered in 2035, with no contingency built in to reopen the railway line between Stratford and Honeybourne. The highest cost option accounts for a dual carriageway delivered in 2040, with contingency for a railway line built in and better road connectivity from the Western Bypass to South Stratford.

Detailed studies by the Department for Transport⁽²⁾ on lessons learnt from the costing of more than 2,500 projects found that early estimates on cost are usually too optimistic.

Atkins Realis' Option Assessment Report in May 2026⁽³⁾ seems to have initially forgotten the above figures, when presented in table format, where it is quoting £80 to £100 million for the Western Bypass. This doesn't allow for rail development and doesn't include better connectivity.

Fortunately Atkins Realis had the sense to include a footnote stating that, with risk allowance and inflation allowance, this figure could be £240 to £300 million.

Also fortunately, the experts at Atkins Realis include another substantial note in relation to cost estimates. This note uses the phrase “given the very early stages of project delivery” as well as noting that the values quoted “should not be used for budget planning”.

Atkins Realis⁽³⁾ quotes £210 to £270 million for a relief road which is single carriageway and includes better connections to Stratford and into and through proposed developments at STR2. No note is included for this figure as to what it could really cost as per the Department for Transport's warnings.

For fairness, other reports and views have estimated lower costs for the current proposed version of the relief road – some in the range £90 to £180 million.

However, you have to bear in mind that the previous, shorter version of the proposed (and never delivered) Western Bypass was estimated by Stratford Town Transport Group⁽⁴⁾ in 2019 to cost £135 million. I am fairly sure things haven't gotten any cheaper in the last 7 years!

The SDC Strategic Outline Business Case Refresh reference reopening the Stratford to Honeybourne railway line report issued in 2025⁽⁵⁾ estimated the cost of a relief road in the region of £200 million.

It is prudent again at this point to remember the Department for Transport's warnings, based on a detailed study of 2,500 projects, about cost estimates early in the development of proposals.

You can draw your own conclusions. Based on trawling the depths of the publicly available documents behind the plan and reading the views of the experts at Atkins Realis, I don't believe anyone who claims even the most basic version of a Western Bypass will ultimately cost anything less than a bare minimum of £200 million, and that still feels optimistic.

Will developers' contributions cover the Western Bypass? It is very unlikely that they will just on their own. These contributions are also needed to pay for other infrastructure to support the SWLP as well, not just the Western Bypass.

Will Stratford District Council get a grant from Homes England? Possibly. As of 2026 Homes England have more funds to distribute for infrastructure spending – some £5 billion⁽⁶⁾. However, every local authority in the country with significant house building targets will be looking to dip into this.

It is also worth noting that the grant of £83 million Stratford District Council applied for from Homes England for the previously proposed Western Bypass was denied⁽⁷⁾.

There are rumours that councillors have been quoted as stating, if we don't get enough developer contributions to pay for the Western Bypass, we will just get a loan. How feasible is this?

For councils getting a loan means going to the HM Treasury-run Public Works Loan Board (PWLB).

£7.3 million doesn't sound too high, does it? When you consider Stratford District Council's net revenue expenditure in 2024/25 was £19.6 million – this is the closest thing you can call its budget, as other income is fixed to pay for things it must be spent on already – and its current borrowing limit is £25 million⁽⁸⁾, borrowing £100 million is suddenly sounding less OK.

Another positive though is the fact that Stratford District Council currently has zero debt, something absolutely to congratulate the council on.

Also, Stratford District Council is estimated to hold around £14 million of cash reserves in 2025. However, Stratford District Council's budget forecast is that this will dwindle to £3 million by 2030⁽⁸⁾.

You may or may not be aware Stratford District Council and Warwick District Council are merging in 2028, and also taking on responsibilities of the county council at the same time.

Are Warwick District Council's and Warwickshire County Council's budgets run quite as prudently as Stratford District Council's seem to have been? I am afraid the answer to that is no.

On formation, Stratford District Council will become part of a unitary authority whereby the other partners will be bringing considerable debt and confirmed spending requirements with them. The total capital financing requirement of the new unitary authority on formation could be as high as £698 million⁽⁹⁾.

The report on Local Government Reorganisation presented to Rugby Borough Council in November 2025⁽⁹⁾ states:

“Capital Financing Requirement (CFR): this measures the amount of borrowing that still needs to be repaid to fund capital spend that has already been spent... Warwickshire's CFR is projected to be £1,268m by March 2028 split £570m (45%) north and £698m (55%) south.”

Let's not forget, delivery of the plan, delivery of any Western Bypass and funding its infrastructure will be the responsibility of the new South Warwickshire unitary council, which, from the data above, looks like it is going to start its existence carrying considerable debt and unfunded spending commitments – making it more challenging to borrow significant sums of money.

Let's go back a few steps as well, where optimistic figures were used.

What if the cost overruns are higher? Atkins Realis put the cost as high as £630 million for a dual carriageway. When more detailed studies have been done, what if a dual carriageway is really needed?

What if those developer contributions just don't add up that high? What if Homes England says no to a grant?

The answer: the council won't just need to borrow £100 million for the Western Bypass. The amount they may have to borrow will be significantly higher.

You may think that accurate costs and confirmed funding are things that should be known before such a critical factor to the plan as the Western Bypass is included in the SWLP, and relied upon for its delivery?

Why does a council getting in significant debt matter? Well, the council's only confirmed guaranteed long-term revenue stream are our council tax payments.

Do we want to face these going up even more? Do we want to see services across the county cut to compensate?

All because Stratford District Council decided in their wisdom to propose to build houses where no suitable infrastructure exists already. This is when it does have other options based around existing infrastructure.

And all because over 10 years ago the government at the time decided to put a garden town in the middle of nowhere, with no infrastructure, on the promise of a Western Bypass that never happened!

Developments to the South of Stratford and the Western Bypass may not physically impact you. You may even favour that location as it prevents house building over your back fence.

However, there is a very real risk it could affect your wallet for some years to come, wherever you are based in the district.

Clopton Bridge was built in 1484 and is over 540 years old. To put this in context this was 8 years before Columbus discovered the Americas.

It is Grade I listed and a scheduled monument. Its age and its heritage status are one thing, but have you ever sat enjoying a meal at the wonderful Mediterranean No. 1 restaurant, or having a cold drink at the brilliant Boathouse Garden with a view of Clopton Bridge, the River, the theatre, the park and thought to yourself what an absolutely special place in England this is?

If you haven't, I recommend you do. 2.7 million annual visitors to Stratford-upon-Avon probably agree with me as well.

What do “we”, the current custodians of our amazing town, do with this? Do we protect it and safeguard its future? No, we don't.

We send 21,000 vehicles a day over it⁽³⁾, including massive HGV vehicle carriers. What do we propose to do? Build thousands more houses south of Stratford whose residents will also drive across it.

This fortunately is a key question considered in the Atkins Realis Options Assessment Report⁽³⁾ and central to the objectives of their study.

Without a Western Bypass, and all of the development proposed in the SWLP, Atkins Realis predict Clopton Bridge would see a 40% increase in traffic usage at peak times.

Note – just like the Strategic Transport Assessment for the SWLP, Atkins Realis in their traffic assessment don't take into account that due to tourist demand Stratford is busier at different times than the traditional Monday to Friday 08:00–09:00 and 17:00–18:00 peaks.

Their report claims section 3 takes this into account, section 3 mentions tourist peaks are an issue, but there is no evidence within their report that it has been modelled in any way.

What do Atkins Realis conclude in their Options Assessment Report if just the cheaper Western Bypass option is used?

If you want to check for yourself, see pages 89 and 90 of their report⁽³⁾.

It is worth remembering the current Stratford District Council's seemingly preferred option is estimated to cost £80 to £100 million – if you are being very optimistic.

Or £240 to £300 million if you are following the advice of the Department for Transport study on major infrastructure costs – and what the experts at Atkins Realis also really think should be followed.

It is worth highlighting that at page 82 of their report, Atkins Realis highlighted that residents from new developments at STR2, existing residents from South Stratford and traffic from the A422 and A3400 Shipston Road will continue to use the existing crossings, including the Clopton Bridge.⁽³⁾

Atkins Realis finish their conclusion by stating that a comprehensive sustainable travel – buses, walking and cycling – strategy needs to be developed.

Note there is a slight issue here. The SWLP doesn't address this very well for South Stratford. A new park and ride – yes (hopefully it is used more than the one in the north of the town). However, there are absolutely zero efforts in the SWLP to introduce a strategic cycle network.

With all of the development proposed around the South of Stratford, even with an expensive Western Bypass, which it is unclear whether the council can really afford in any case, it is by no means guaranteed to see an overall reduction in usage.

Clopton Bridge is not going to get the protection it needs.

The centre of Stratford around one of the most beautiful and rich settings that any town in England has to offer will continue to be blighted by traffic.

There are other options, building on locations to the North of Stratford, with railway stations and close to the A46 and M40, that won't add to the pressure on Clopton Bridge.

A significant part of the justification for not building in these locations is the fact they are in Green Belt land.

It is prudent at this point to note that the Green Belt area to the North of Stratford is around 23,000 hectares – 23% of the entire district.

Maybe when caught up in the details of study after study, assessment after assessment, policy after policy, our planners can be forgiven for missing the bigger picture.

I am afraid I can't give the same forgiveness to the councillors who voted through this version of the SWLP. Their job is literally to see the big picture for the town and district.

It is a saving grace our MP does, but unfortunately she is not in charge of the SWLP.

Maybe our councillors have been misled? Maybe they have not had a chance to analyse and understand the details of the plan and the studies behind it as much as some of us have? Maybe this piece has pulled together the wrong information?

Again, developments to the South of Stratford may not directly impact you.

We only have one 500 year old Grade I listed bridge, we only have one area around the river, with the restaurants, the bars, the parks, the swans, the paddle boats and the theatre, and all of the tourists and income they bring to the town.

We have lots, and lots of Green Belt land.