1. Even with major road improvements, congestion remains

The Council tested whether the proposed developments could be supported by introducing a package of major transport improvements, including the proposed South Western Relief Road (SWRR) and extensive upgrades to key junctions across Stratford.

While these measures improve traffic flow in some locations, the Council's own modelling shows that congestion remains above the Reference Case across the network. At some junctions, significant queues persist and further redesign work is acknowledged as being necessary.

In other words, even after assuming hundreds of millions of pounds of highway investment—including the South Western Relief Road—the Council's preferred strategy still performs worse than the scenario without the proposed development.

2. The Local Plan depends on major infrastructure that has not yet been secured

The Council's transport strategy relies heavily on the proposed South Western Relief Road (SWRR) to support several of the largest housing allocations, including South Stratford (STR.2), Long Marston Airfield (LMA) and Bidford (BID.1).

The Council's own transport modelling indicates that without the Relief Road, traffic conditions would deteriorate significantly, with much longer journey times, severe congestion and some model simulations unable to clear traffic during peak periods. The Relief Road therefore forms a fundamental part of the Local Plan's transport strategy.

In other words, the Local Plan assumes delivery of infrastructure that the Council itself acknowledges still requires substantial funding, design, approvals and implementation before it can become operational.

Before the road could be built, it would still need to:

• Secure a committed funding package.
• Develop a detailed business case.
• Complete further transport modelling and technical design.
• Undertake environmental assessment and obtain statutory approvals.
• Acquire land where required.
• Procure contractors and construct the road.

3. Around 2,400 homes are planned before the South Western Relief Road is expected to open

The Council's Housing Trajectory shows that substantial development is planned across the Stratford area before the South Western Relief Road (SWRR) is expected to become operational.

Across the developments most likely to affect Stratford—Long Marston Airfield (LMA), Stratford South-east (STR.2), Stratford North (STR.1), Stratford West (STR.3), Bidford-on-Avon (BID.1) and Wellesbourne North (WEL.1)—the Council plans for approximately 2,400 homes to be completed before 2035/36.

This is consistent with the Council's Delivery Strategy, which explains that development itself will help fund and enable delivery of the Relief Road. Rather than requiring the road to be completed first, the proposed housing is expected to contribute towards making the scheme deliverable.

Importantly, the Council has already assessed what happens if development proceeds without the South Western Relief Road. That assessment predicts substantially increased congestion, much longer journey times and severe impacts across parts of the highway network.

4. The transport forecasts rely on ambitious assumptions

The Council's transport model assumes that many people will choose buses, walking and cycling instead of travelling by car. These assumptions reduce the number of future car journeys within the model and therefore reduce the amount of predicted congestion.

Ambitious assumptions about public transport

The modelling assumes that bus patronage can more than double, returning to levels last seen before passenger numbers declined. It also assumes that a significant proportion of existing car journeys will transfer to improved bus services.

However, the published evidence does not identify committed operator agreements or long-term funding that would guarantee these service levels throughout the lifetime of the Local Plan.

Walking and cycling routes may also be affected

The Council also expects more journeys to be made on foot and by bicycle. At the same time, several proposed highway schemes would cross existing walking and cycling routes, including sections of the Stratford Greenway and Public Rights of Way.

The published evidence does not clearly explain how these routes will remain safe, attractive and convenient once the strategic highway schemes are built, or whether any reduction in their attractiveness has been reflected within the transport modelling.

In other words, the predicted traffic levels depend partly on people changing how they travel. If those behavioural changes are not achieved, traffic levels could be higher than those forecast by the model.

5. Does the modelling reflect Stratford's busiest days?

The transport model used to assess the Local Plan is based on "neutral weekday" traffic conditions, using travel data collected during typical Tuesdays, Wednesdays and Thursdays. This follows standard transport modelling practice by representing an average weekday rather than periods of unusually high demand.

Stratford experiences unique traffic patterns

Unlike many towns, Stratford-upon-Avon attracts millions of visitors each year. Traffic levels during weekends, holidays and major events can be substantially higher than on a typical weekday, with additional congestion around the town centre, Clopton Bridge, Bridge Foot, the River Avon and key routes into the town.

These periods also see much greater pedestrian activity, increasing demand at crossings and affecting how traffic moves through the town centre.

Tourism continues to grow

Tourism data published by Shakespeare's England indicates that visitor numbers have continued to increase since the transport model was developed. This suggests that seasonal demand on Stratford's road network may now be greater than the baseline represented within the transport model.

In other words, the modelling demonstrates how the network is expected to perform on an average weekday. It is less clear from the published evidence whether the same conclusions apply during the periods when Stratford's road network experiences its greatest demand.

6. Have neighbouring developments been included?

Thousands of new homes are also proposed just outside South Warwickshire, particularly within neighbouring Cotswold District. Many residents of these communities already travel to Stratford for work, shopping, education and leisure, placing additional demand on the town's roads.

Stratford serves a much wider area

Stratford-upon-Avon is the main employment, shopping and service centre for many nearby communities beyond the district boundary. Regular journeys are made between places such as Mickleton, Chipping Campden and Moreton-in-Marsh using routes including the A429, A3400 and B4632.

Thousands more homes are planned nearby

The emerging Cotswold Local Plan proposes substantial additional housing, including approximately:

• 589 homes in Mickleton.
• 2,135 homes in Moreton-in-Marsh.
• 228 homes in Chipping Campden.

Much of this additional traffic is likely to use Stratford's road network, particularly routes approaching the town from the south.

The published evidence acknowledges limitations

The Council's transport consultants acknowledge that their assessment is high-level and that future traffic growth from additional developments has not been fully represented. However, the published evidence does not clearly explain whether emerging growth in neighbouring Cotswold District has been incorporated within the background traffic forecasts or assessed through separate sensitivity testing.

In other words, it is difficult for readers to determine whether the cumulative impact of planned development across administrative boundaries has been fully assessed before concluding that the proposed transport strategy is acceptable.