Transport

1. Even with major road improvements, congestion remains

The Council tested whether the proposed developments could be supported by introducing a package of major transport improvements, including the proposed South Western Relief Road and extensive upgrades to key junctions across Stratford.

While these measures improve traffic flow in some locations, the Council's own modelling shows that congestion remains above the Reference Case across the network. At some junctions, significant queues persist and further redesign work is acknowledged as being necessary.

2. The Local Plan depends on infrastructure that has not yet been secured

The Council's transport strategy relies heavily on the proposed South Western Relief Road (SWRR) to support several of the largest housing allocations, including South Stratford (SG19), Long Marston Airfield (E1) and SG18-S.

The Council's own transport modelling indicates that without the Relief Road, traffic conditions would deteriorate significantly, with much longer journey times, severe congestion and some model simulations unable to clear traffic during peak periods.

Before the road could be built, it would still need to:

• Secure a committed funding package.
• Develop a detailed business case.
• Complete further transport modelling and technical design.
• Undertake environmental assessment and obtain statutory approvals.
• Acquire land where required.
• Procure contractors and construct the road.

3. Housing may be occupied before the supporting infrastructure is in place

The Local Plan proposes significant housing growth during the early-to-mid 2030s, particularly at Long Marston Airfield (E1) and East of Stratford (SG19). However, the Council's Delivery Strategy indicates that the South Western Relief Road is not expected to open until around 2035 or later.

This creates a period during which substantial numbers of new homes could be occupied before the transport infrastructure intended to support them is operational.

The Council tested a scenario in which development proceeded without the Relief Road. This modelling predicted substantial increases in congestion, much longer journey times and severe delays across the local highway network.

4. The transport forecasts rely on ambitious assumptions

The Council's transport model assumes that many people will choose buses, walking and cycling instead of travelling by car. These assumptions reduce the number of future car journeys within the model and therefore reduce the amount of predicted congestion.

Ambitious assumptions about public transport

The modelling assumes that bus patronage can more than double, returning to levels last seen before passenger numbers declined. It also assumes that a significant proportion of existing car journeys will transfer to improved bus services.

However, the published evidence does not identify committed operator agreements or long-term funding that would guarantee these service levels throughout the lifetime of the Local Plan.

Walking and cycling routes may also be affected

The Council also expects more journeys to be made on foot and by bicycle. At the same time, several proposed highway schemes would cross existing walking and cycling routes, including sections of the Stratford Greenway and Public Rights of Way.

The published evidence does not clearly explain how these routes will remain safe, attractive and convenient once the strategic road schemes are built.

5. Does the modelling reflect Stratford's busiest days?

The transport model used to assess the Local Plan is based on "neutral" weekday traffic patterns, using travel data collected during ordinary Tuesdays, Wednesdays and Thursdays.

Stratford experiences unique traffic patterns

Unlike many towns, Stratford-upon-Avon attracts millions of visitors every year. Traffic levels during weekends, holidays and major events can be substantially higher than on a typical weekday, with additional congestion around the town centre, Clopton Bridge, Bridge Foot, the River Avon and key routes into the town.

Visitor traffic is also accompanied by much higher pedestrian activity, increasing demand at crossings and affecting how traffic moves through the town centre.

Tourism continues to grow

Tourism data published by Shakespeare's England shows that visitor numbers have continued to increase since the transport model was developed. Day-trip visits to South Warwickshire have risen significantly, meaning the highway network is likely to experience greater seasonal demand than in the baseline used by the modelling.

6. Have neighbouring developments been included?

Thousands of new homes are also proposed just outside South Warwickshire, particularly within neighbouring Cotswold District. Many residents of these communities already travel to Stratford for work, shopping, education and leisure, placing additional demand on the town's roads.

Stratford serves a much wider area

Stratford-upon-Avon is the main employment, shopping and service centre for many nearby communities beyond the district boundary. Regular journeys are made between places such as Mickleton, Chipping Campden and Moreton-in-Marsh using routes including the A429, A3400 and B4632.

Thousands more homes are planned nearby

The emerging Cotswold Local Plan proposes substantial additional housing, including approximately:

• 589 homes in Mickleton.
• 2,135 homes in Moreton-in-Marsh.
• 228 homes in Chipping Campden.

Much of this additional traffic is likely to use Stratford's road network, particularly routes approaching the town from the south.

The evidence acknowledges limitations

The Council's own transport consultants acknowledge that their assessment is high-level and that future traffic growth from additional developments has not been fully represented. The published evidence does not clearly explain whether emerging growth in neighbouring Cotswold District has been included within the background traffic assumptions or tested through sensitivity analysis.